Israel’s war cabinet held heated discussions on Monday as ministers debated how to respond to the unprecedented Iranian missile and drone attack at the weekend.
The nature and scale of that response remains unclear, but IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said on Sunday that “provisional plans for both offensive and defensive action” have been approved.
As world leaders scramble to contain the crisis and avert a war, Israel’s next steps could have consequences for millions in the Middle East region and beyond.
Offensive
Air strikes on military and nuclear sites
Israeli governments have mulled attacks on Iran and its burgeoning nuclear programme for decades, and the weekend attack could provide a window of opportunity.
“The most natural response is we destroy many targets in Iran including nuclear facilities with the legitimacy we have now,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former IDF general and national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We can use the air force for a few days and nights to destroy as much as possible.”
Israeli military sources are confident that the Israeli fleet has the capabilities to reach Tehran through mid-air refuelling operations. But Iran’s air defences, some supplied by Russia, would pose a threat to pilots, which could make a missile attack a safer option.
“I am only aware of classic air defence batteries in Iran that are capable of hitting incoming fighter jets and drones but Iran lacks completely any kind of missile defence,” said Tal Inbar, a leading missile specialist at the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance.
An attack on nuclear sites would certainly draw a major response from Iran, analysts believe, including through Hezbollah from Lebanon, which possesses thousands of missiles capable of striking targets across Israel.
Focused attack on launch sites
Israel could avoid a major escalation through a response similar to the Iranian attack, which Tehran claimed was focussed on the Nevatim air base it believes was used by Israeli jets to launch attacks on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, on 1 April.
Iranian sources report that multiple sites were used but the ballistic missiles originated from a launch point near the eastern city of Kermanshah, offering a potential target for retaliation. Israel could further mitigate escalation risks by telegraphing an attack in advance to minimise potential casualties.
But such an attack could still prompt a response from Iran, and Israeli military veterans believe it is unlikely to restore deterrence.
“If they decide not to do something big, it would be better not to do it at all,” said Mr Amidror.
Attacks outside Iran
Israel has been engaged in escalating firefights with Hezbollah at its northern border throughout the war in Gaza, with several Israeli officials predicting that an all out war with the militant group is becoming inevitable.
Israel intensified bombing of south Lebanon in the wake of the Iranian attack and could go further by striking deeper inside the country, and potentially the capital Beirut. But that would be likely to prompt a retaliation by Hezbollah that would see Israel come under heavy fire, according to Yoni Ben Menachem, an Israeli military analyst.
“I think it’s too risky,” he said. “Not even the army is recommending that.”
Israel could also escalate an ongoing campaign of air strikes against Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, having reportedly assassinated at least 18 Iranian military officials in the country during the war in Gaza.
Cyber attacks and covert operations in Iran
Israel has demonstrated advanced cyber warfare capabilities against Iran before, notably though the Stuxnet virus used to sabotage Iranian nuclear facilities in 2010, while a recent attack paralysed the country’s gas stations.
“If it was up to me I would do a cyber attack as there’s no risk in it,” said Mr Ben Menachem. “It wouldn’t have to be nuclear sites, it could even be civilian targets that would create chaos. The military have very good plans for cyber attacks.”
Israel has also developed intelligence networks within Iran that have allowed it to carry out a string of assassinations and sabotage attacks in the Islamic republic dating back decades, with targets ranging from nuclear scientists to drone production facilities.
Defensive
Replenish air defence stockpiles
The multilateral, multi-echeloned air defences deployed by Israel and allies to down hundreds of drones and missiles marked a historic success, making use of Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems to intercept a wide range of targets.
But the blitz would have depleted stocks, as well costing more than £1bn, and Israel will need allies to rebuild them ahead of future attacks – particularly if Israel decides on a harsh response that invites retaliation.
“Israel is in constant need of more assets for interceptors of all layers from Iron Dome to Arrow,” said Mr Inbar. “Production and stockpiling of these assets is a must.”
Protect and develop the defensive alliance
Despite triumphant statements from Israeli officials over the performance of defensive systems, there is a recognition that “Israel did not do it alone”, said Mr Ben Menachem.
Without the US to corral a coalition and support from non-hostile Middle East regimes, notably Jordan, which allowed missiles and drones to be shot down before reaching Israeli airspace, the Iranian attack could have proved more costly.
Recognising the importance of the alliance should condition the Israeli response, Mr Ben Menachem said, as a major attack on Iran in defiance of allies’ calls for restraint could jeopardise the defensive operation.
Preparations on the home front
Local authorities in Israel have made patchy efforts to prepare the civilian population for war, such as in Haifa, where the mayor, Yona Yahav instructed residents to stockpile food and medicine.
Such efforts are likely to intensify with further emergency guidance issued to citizens in case of further attacks.